Robert C. Doll, who is the Fundamental Equities Chairman believes that the investment environment in the next 10 years won’t be as great as it was in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but will be generally a lot better than it was in the decade that just ended. He makes several predictions about what it will be like, and we will discuss them below.
1. Recessions will happen more often in the next 10 years than just once a decade as it was in the last two decades. Over the past 20 years, there was an economic recession once in 8 years, but the long-term average over the past 100 years amounts to once in 3.8 years. According to Doll, the frequency of recessions will get closer to this average in the next decade.
2. Energy alternatives, information technology, and healthcare will be leading areas of growth in the United States. Raising taxes on carbon emissions will support alternative energy development. The innovation of energy will be motivated by oil supply, as well as geopolitical issues, since the majority of the oil worldwide is under the control of government bodies that are not U.S. friendly. The impact of information technology will be more prominent due to the development of new types of entertainment devices and computers, as well as advances in microprocessor capacity and speed. As for healthcare, according to Doll, the spending levels in this sector will almost definitely go on increasing because of the aging population.
3. Interest rates will increase irregularly in developing countries. In the next 10 years, the prominence of greenback will keep on decreasing, due to rising levels of U.S. debt, which will most likely drag down the value of the dollar. However, the dollar is expected to remain the principal reserve currency worldwide, because it is still the most liquid available currency and the paper market for the dollar is the largest in the world. Interest rates worldwide are likely to rise with concerns of inflation.
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